Myanmar's Suu Kyi Tests Leash With a Tour

Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi embarked on her latest political tour, with many supporters wondering how far the government will let her go in rallying followers across the country—especially if her campaign snowballs into a groundswell of support for more aggressive reforms.
Ms. Suu Kyi, whose political party boycotted Myanmar's last national election in 2010, is running for a seat in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for April in a poor district near Yangon called Kawhmu.

But rather than campaigning in just that community, Ms. Suu Kyi is taking her entourage all over Myanmar, promoting her message of political freedom and democracy across a country that was ruled by a harsh military regime for decades before its leaders began enacting reforms in the past year. Although her messages appear to be in concert with Myanmar's current leaders, who have embraced more press freedom and wider political debate, some of her supporters worry the rallies could run afoul of Myanmar laws that restrict campaigning and events that threaten public security, which could be used to justify a backlash from the government.
Her political tours have also stoked tensions in the past, including in 2011, when state media warned Ms. Suu Kyi's followers against unrest ahead of a planned trip by Ms. Suu Kyi to the Myanmar countryside. An earlier political tour in 2003 ended in disaster when pro-government mobs attacked Ms. Suu Kyi's entourage, leaving many of her followers dead, though few residents expect such violence this time given the recent changes in Myanmar's government.
On Tuesday, crowds lined roadways south of Yangon as Ms. Suu Kyi took a four-hour drive to Pathein, a regional capital in Myanmar's Irrawaddy Delta region. More than 10,000 people gathered in a sports stadium to hear her speak, as supporters unfurled banners hailing Ms. Suu Kyi as "Mother Democracy," the Associated Press reported.
The trip followed a similar jaunt late last month when Ms. Suu Kyi traveled to the southern coastal district of Dawei, attracting throngs of supporters who climbed trees, cars and houses to get a glimpse of the icon. Ms. Suu Kyi is expected to visit other parts of the country, including the city of Mandalay, before the April 1 vote is held.
The crowds are enormous by Myanmar standards, and could augur more widespread political activism in the weeks ahead. Myanmar's leaders have promised to make sure the coming elections are free and fair, but many analysts assume Myanmar's government could grow more cautious if the crowds get too big.
The government is likely to give Ms. Suu Kyi a very long leash to appease critics in the West, but "there is definitely a limit" to what it will tolerate, said Jan Zalewski, an analyst at IHS Global Insight.
Since taking power last year, Myanmar's new government has released scores of political prisoners and pursued other reforms aimed at making the country more attractive to foreign investors, raising hopes that Western leaders will lift economic sanctions that block most American and many other companies from doing business there.
On Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton signed a waiver that should make it easier for Myanmar to get help from the World Bank and other multilateral institutions, by lifting some U.S. opposition to the groups' work there. The U.S. has kept most of its other sanctions in place, holding out for the results of the April 1 vote.
That vote won't appreciably change Myanmar's political landscape, since it involves only 48 parliamentary seats vacated since 2010, out of a total of 664. Even if opposition leaders sweep the polls, they will remain a small minority in a parliament dominated by current and former soldiers and other allies of the current administration.
It is also unclear whether Ms. Suu Kyi's latest forays are legal. Government rules approved in 2010 demanded that candidates seek permission to campaign a week in advance. The rules also prohibited residents from holding flags and shouting slogans in processions, and forbade candidates from making speeches that harm security or "tarnish the image" of the military.
It is unclear if those rules still apply. A government official contacted by The Wall Street Journal referred questions about campaigning to Myanmar's Election Commission, which didn't respond to requests for clarification.
Nyan Win, a spokesman for Ms. Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party, said her political organization was waiting for the Election Commission to issue its latest campaign rules. Her latest trips, he said, were set up for her to meet with other organizations and party members, not for campaigning, and therefore didn't require permits. But that argument could strain credibility, given her recent appearances.
Speaking to crowds on Tuesday, Ms. Suu Kyi outlined some of her party's political objectives in parliament, including plans to seek an end to ethnic conflicts and improve rule of law.
"Please don't forget to vote for the NLD!" she told the crowd, the Associated Press reported.